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greenmedic88 on 03 September 2012
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HappySqurriel said:
greenmedic88 said:
If by narrow window of opportunity, he means one year, then yes.

Of course, I'm going off the assumption (no kooky predictions here) that Nintendo will be releasing 2-3 major, hardware selling releases based upon their top selling IPs right around or just before SCE and MS debut, which will compare favorably with what will likely be somewhat lackluster launch releases on the PS4 and Xbox 3 over the 2013 holiday season.

Generally, it takes about a year before the first must buy titles show up on new platforms. It took the better part of a year before the Xbox 360 received Gears of War and a bit less than a year before the PS3 started seeing titles like Uncharted. I see no reason why this will change this generation, although I'd be perfectly happy if either SCE or MS dictates otherwise.

On the third party title issue, it's more or less out of Nintendo's hands how developers choose to use or ignore the hardware advantages the Wii U has over the PS3 and Xbox 360. At worst, we could see ports that are anywhere from on par to even slightly worse, to ports that show a significant performance benefit in addition to the second screen user interface and tablet based input.


I would actually say the narrow window of opportunity is actually 2 years ...

Even if Sony and Microsoft have an unusually clean launch it will take at least a full year before their new systems are established; and if they fumble the launch it could take 2 or more years before they're ready. While these platforms are just getting started Nintendo can use that as an opportunity to sell hardware and attract third party support. Watching the 3DS and PS-Vita right now you can see this at play, while both systems fumbled a bit Nintendo recovered quickly, and with the head start the 3DS had it is able to capitalize on the struggling PS-Vita; as a result of this Nintendo's opportunity didn't end when the PS-Vita launched, after all it is a year after the launch and Nintendo still has the advantage.

Nintendo still has one year to prevent single platform early adoptees from buying an Xbox 3 or PS4. 

As far as third party releases go, anything set to be released at launch or within the first year of availability is already well along the development pipeline, meaning there's no hard sell there; the Wii U will get at least those titles currently in development barring any 11th hour project cancellations. 

If the big Nintendo titles that typically sell in the millions aren't there before the others debut (and I see no reason why there won't be at least 2 of these by holiday season 2013), you're going to have a lot of previous SCE and MS customers buying their respective console regardless of what will likely be lackluster launch release catalogs (I'd like to be wrong about the launch releases, but history says otherwise) as they will be buying hardware on the strength of what's been announced rather than just what's actually released. 

I've done it plenty of times; any core demographic game consumer does it too. 

While I've been quick to dismiss rumors until official statements are released from manufacturers, these unexpectedly low price rumors for the Wii U may play a strong hand in gaining a significant number of sales when compared with the prices of the Xbox 3 and PS4. If it's at least $100 difference, the Wii U may end up gaining a lot of converts simply because the gap in capabilities probably won't be so apparent when comparing 2nd year Wii U releases/ports against 1st year PS4/Xbox 3 titles.