The Nintendrone: Can Microsoft and Sony Compete With The Wii U?

[Metallicube]

I also think Sony and MS are going to have a difficult time competing with Nintendo, but think he is off on the main reason behind it. I really feel that simply by having Sony and MS hold off on new consoles and giving Nintendo what seems to be at least a year head start (as the new Sony and MS consoles have yet to even be revealed), they've all but conceded the next generation to Nintendo already. Getting a head start is VERY important, moreso than a lot of people think. Just ask the Xbox 360 and the PS2, oh and the 3DS. The extra time gives that console time to establish a decent game library, a userbase that commits to you more and more instead of your competitor, and also gives third parties extra time to become comfortable with developing for the system. You also get a head start on the inevitable price drops to follow because the hardware you manufacture becomes cheaper to make.

Now, if the games that come out during this extra year or so are not up to par, then it wouldn't matter as much, but in the Wii U's case, you got three HUGE franchises in NSMB, Wii Fit, and Dragon Quest X (in Japan) which should all release during this stretch where Nintendo will have NO direct competition. This trio will guarantee at the very least decent sales out the gate, and probably have the potential to sell a combined 50 million units alone. You've also got a launch lineup that looks to be the strongest in recent history, stronger even than the Wii. Wii's biggest titles then were a Zelda port, and a game that many described as a "demo." Wii U will already come out the gate with Pikmin 3, NSMB, Wii Fit, Just Dance, Zombi, Rayman, Lego City Stories, Scribblenauts, P-100, not to mention a plethora of third party ports that could sway some of the more stubborn core gamers that still cling to the 360 and PS3.

So what will gamers do? Will they really be able to resist waiting out at least a year for the mere possibility of Sony and MS revealing new consoles, sticking with their current HD consoles that are already starting to slow on the new releases? I don't see many doing that, at least not without getting a Wii U while they wait. By the time Sony and MS do release their new consoles, I feel they are going to have a hard time giving incentive for gamers to make the move from Nintendo to them, as the Wii U will already have an established library of games. Not to mention, the graphic leap likely won't be as significant this time, as Wii U's graphics should be viewed as "good enough." Sony and MS will almost certainly have better looking games, but will they be able to warrant an additional $500-$700 for them (console plus controllers?) Especially in these tough economic times, I don't think so.. Compare this to a console that will likely cost somewhere in the $250-$350 range, and for many people, won't require they buy additional controllers since the Wii U will support Wiimotes, and Nintendo gains a quick advantage in a depressed market.

Sony and MS are putting themselves in a very dangerous position by giving Nintendo this head start. Even if they released at the same time, I'd say they'd have their work cut out for them, but now they must overcome what could be anywhere from a 10-20 million head start, all the whlie trying to convince gamers who have already set camp with Nintendo to spend another $500-$700 on their consoles. Remember, the Wii was the LAST of the current trio of consoles to be released, and it has eclipsed them by 30 million. The ironic thing is that while everyone dissed Nintendo for remaining in the "last generation" with Wii, now it seems Sony and MS will be doing the same with their PS3 and 360. The only difference is these are old consoles that have already reached, or at least neared, the saturation points, whereas Wii was a least a new console based around a relatively new idea of the 3D motion controller and a retro-esque twist on modern games. I think it is very possible that we could be seeing another generation similar to the PS2 where Sony completely ran away with the market while Nintendo and MS fought for the scraps, except the roles of Sony and Nintendo will now be swapped.