Difficult to say, especially no that we know the Vita actually sold less than we thought it did.
10 million for the 3DS should be reachable considering Nintendo systems usually have great holiday seasons and the fact it's selling over 200k now, so at least I say 3DS will make it before Jan 5th.
I don't really see Vita do very much in the holiday season. AC and CoD will be greatly overshadowed by their console counterparts and won't do anymore than Uncharted Golden Abyss did, on top of the console still being very expensive. Considering the snails pace it sells, I don't think it will make it.
3DS before Jan 5th, Vita after.







