Honestly? The Vita has no great game in japan for this year. There are some games for the west (AC-Ripoff, CoD) that could sell some Vitas.
After all the Vita sold only 2.2 mio until now. The Vita has already had some chance in japan at launch in december, but has not sold well. This december the japan sales will be even lower. I don't see high sales for the Vita in rest of the world this year unless Sony cuts the price by half.
If there are some cheap bundles at christmas the Vita will reach the 5 Mio units in april 2013, but probably later.
The 30 mio for the 3DS could be reached in january 2013. Animal Crossing should sell some 3DS in japan this year.







