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HappySqurriel on 21 August 2012
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Runa216 said:
HappySqurriel said:
Runa216 said:
I will continue to say: PS3 and 3DS were both "doomed" for the first year or so of their existence...look where they ended up.

6 months is NOT enough time to determine if something is doomed. Seriously people, you are addicted to negativity and hatred.


This is a site that is dedicated to the analysis of sales figures and people will generally fixate on whatever the most "exciting" sales data there is ...

Now, you're correct that we can't fully judge the lifetime sales of a console based on its initial six months on the market but you can start to get an idea how it will end up selling. With selling far below the rate of the PSP and PS3 it is reasonably safe to assume that the PS-Vita will sell to a lower level than these systems did; and lower sales and increased development costs compared to your previous generation system is never a good combination for a company.

I study box office, which is similar to console and game sales, and trust me, there's LOTS of wiggle room.  That's like being able to tell how good an indie film is going to do based on its first week, when everyone knows it's about legs.  We doubly know that Sony is known for supporting their stuff long after the next system comes out, so there's a solid 5-7 years left of the handheld's life before we can really tell.  

Hell, PS3 was selling poorly for like 3 years before it turned itself around!  

The PS3 retained third party support because third party publishers needed the PS3, XBox 360 and PC to justify the development costs of these games and had over-committed to the HD consoles; and, between the three platforms, sales justified the cost of the games for developers who didn't go bankrupt so development continued.

There is no XBox 360 and PC to port Vita games to, so the Vita needs to stand on its own ...

Third party publishers follow success and if Sony can not demonstrate success with the PS-Vita third party publishers will move elsewhere.

 

Edit: Using movies as an example, the PS-Vita is a big budget blockbuster that had an opening weekend of $5 Million and you're expecting it to make $300 Million from its theater run.