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I don't think CoD and AC will save the console.  These two games are better on home consoles.  I think the Vita will sell at a 10k/week pace until a price drop occur.  Many people are holding off because of the price.  But it also needs more games.  New original IPs dedicated to the handheld market, just like Gravity Rush.  Releasing PS3 ports or home console games' spinoffs won't sell the system.

If the Vita doesn't have 4M units sold by the end of the year, it's pretty much doomed.  By that time, the 3DS will already be 25-30M units sold.