Wii U, 3DS, my thoughts...

[SaviorX]

Pavolink said:

SaviorX said:

5.5m worldwide starting from...March or January? Obviously the August numbers are not included in your figure, but this should be a big month with the 3DS XL and NSMB2 launching.

From October to Last December alone, the 3DS sold 7.9 million units. With the same evergreen titles & NSMB2, crossover hype from the Wii U launch, and more holiday titles, I see the 3DS beating that this year.

January (calendar year). Of course August will be big, but I'm not expecting that much this holiday season because of Wii U launch and NSMBU taking some sales to NSMB2.

Also, last year there were 3 big factors for the high sales: price cut, 3D Land and Mario Kart. I'm not expecting those games to push the same sales as last year; XL is more expensive than regular 3DS and as mentioned before, NSMB2 sales could be good, but not that great because of the U iteration.

And honestly, Paper Mario and Luigi Mansion are not big sellers, like for example Animal Crossing.

That's talking about western markets, Japan on the other hand will be very big with both NSMB and Animal Crossing.

NSMBU is not confirmed for launch simultaneous with the Wii U yet. I doubt that there will be interfenerence on the console side with the handheld side when it comes to buying NSMB. The console and handheld are two different experiences from the same franchise but they work in tandem. 2D Mario is one of the rare franchises that can coexist that way. I have previously spoken in length about how COD and Assassins Creed on the Vita cannot.

Your second part I'm a little confused about. Animal Crossing DS was a big seller, that is true. However, the Wii version was awful and lazy. In this case despite its sales, the negative feedback (along with...Wii Music?) destroyed Wii momentum forever. Luigis Mansion & Paper Mario will probably only sell 2m each, but they are not so bad that it turns people off from buying a 3DS. These two games simply sustain momentum and strengthen the library.

Correct me if I am wrong, but Pokemon Black and White 2 is coming mid-December. That will also help a little. I agree, selling in the West will be harder but I got a good hunch about the 3DS making it work somehow this year.