Wii U, 3DS, my thoughts...

[SaviorX]

Pavolink said:

SaviorX said:

Pavolink said:
I eagerly wait for Galaki opinion.

Also, in my opinion, 3DS is selling ok-good because of the DS brand, not for its own. Many games are sequels for DS games that make the handheld a success: NSMB sequel, Nintendogs sequel, Oni Training sequel and next year Friend Collection sequel.

I'm expecting 3DS sales to start to fall soon after XL release, with maybe another revision for holidays 2013 or Q1 2014. It could end with something like 90M at the end, which is good, but that's all. Maybe replaced at holiday 2015 for a very different handheld.

About the Wii U, I expect to sell very well initially, and while never will reach the peaks we saw with the Wii, its sales will be more consistent during its life.

Next year is most likely the 3DS' peak year, but I also feel 2014 will be very close; no less than 15% below the 2013 total. 2011 was around 13.5m, 2012 will probably be around ~19m.

With that in mind, I'm therefore assuming the 3DS sells 23.5 million units next year. and probably 20.75m the year after.

3DS Lifetime hardware sales will be past 115 million for sure.

3DS is atm at 5.5m. To reach 19m it will need 13-13.5m in 5 months. It won't. 11.5-12M at max. Next year could be better, but not as high as you expect, maybe 20.5-21m, which will be very good.

I'm expecting Nintendo to see 3DS as a good hanheld, but not as succesful as they wanted, even while not expecting to replicate DS success.

5.5m worldwide starting from...March or January? Obviously the August numbers are not included in your figure, but this should be a big month with the 3DS XL and NSMB2 launching.

From October to Last December alone, the 3DS sold 7.9 million units. With the same evergreen titles & NSMB2, crossover hype from the Wii U launch, and more holiday titles, I see the 3DS beating that this year.