I don't think we can make any justified assertions on digital sales right now.
Of course, digital distribution is growing more and more significant and Nintendo has been marketing this title more digitally than past titles. The 3DS is still a very new platform and we can not make any justified assertions on it's owners' purchasing preferences yet. It's not unreasonable to suggest that a fair amount of Mario fans are also Angry Birds fans whom are fairly accustomed to digital distribution.
It's flawed reasoning to use past Mario titles as hard evidence for how current Mario titles will perform digitally because 1.) Past Mario titles were released in a market with a much smaller emphasis on digital distribution and 2.) Past Mario titles were released on platforms with a significantly less emphasis on digital distribution. Expecting this to follow trends of past Mario titles is simply flawed reasoning. Digital is growing more and more important and there's no reason to believe Nintendo won't be an exception from this trend. The question is what title will be the breakthrough title for the digital era for Nintendo. It is not far-fetched in the slightest to suggest this title will be the on to do so.
By no means am I asserting that digital sales for this game will be impressive. My point is they could be impressive. They also could be lukewarm. Both scenarios are perfectly reasonable and neither possibility can be dismissed with current knowledge. It's really a wild card, we just don't know. With that said, I do believe this title will have at least moderately more digital sales than past installments. I just don't know to what magnitude at this point.
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