So as of July 25th it looks like DQX has 155,000 preorders in Japan, last year Dragon Quest Collection only got to 140,000 preorders, and then it sold about 290,000 units week one.
I reckon DQX will get to about 200,000 preorders. Typically games double their preorder level on Wii, but sometimes it's more like x1.5 or x1.75, either way, it looks like DQX is a pretty safe bet for a 300,000 - 400,000 opening in Japan, and it should hold at a fairly high level with Obon coming mid-month. Given Kirby pushed some hardware this week, and Just Dance will push some hw next week, I reckon we're going to see at least four weeks in Japan where Wii is above 10,000 again as DQ / Mario Party / Just Dance / Kirby will each sell fairly well into late August.
I'm willing to say with a fair amount of certainty too, that DQX week is probably the last non-Dec/Jan week that Wii will top 25,000 in Japan (I'm expecting about 12,000 for JD week, and 28,000 for DQX week one, )
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
