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Nah, it's going to hit 2 million I think, but not that much more.
There too little time. It won't sell as good as the Wii did. I'd love to be proven wrong though. Anyway, beating Vita in the next year shouldn't be that much of a problem. Vita's holiday period will probably be mediocre, and 3DS's pretty good, but not top-year DS good. It'll be good primarily thanks to the XL and NSMB2, maybe about 7.5 million.