I actually think the Wii U launch is going to be similar to the SNES launch / trajectory. They'll have a couple huge IP's at launch, but the gameplay innovation is far less than on Wii or DS (in some ways it's HD Wii + DS), so it will peak lower and earlier and then slow down faster for hardware, but in one or several regions I'd imagine software shipments will be similar to Wii as the attempt at "broader" software should be somewhat successful either in Japan (if it gets DS like games) or in the West (if it gets all the popular violent stuff, and Wii stuff).
Wii will probably end up around 110m lifetime (should be 97-97.5m through Sept, around 101m through Dec), I think it's conceivable that Wii U does better in Japan than Wii because it will be the second system after 3DS for much of its lifetime with Vita performing worse than PS3 and far worse than DS / PSP / Wii.
Vita - 830,000 (32 weeks in Japan)
3DS - 842,000 (6 weeks in Japan)
DS - 872,00 (3 weeks in Japan)
PSP - 842,000 (10 weeks in Japan)
PS3 - 828,000 (21 weeks in Japan)
Wii - 850,000 (4 weeks in Japan)
GBA - 935,000 (2 weeks in Japan)
PS2 - 910,000 (2 weeks in Japan)
GC - 795,000 (15 weeks in Japan)
N64 - 847,000 (28 weeks in Japan)
Wii U should certainly do better than Vita initially with NSMB & DQX both announced for it, and coming relatively early on.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
