Conegamer said:
Farsala said:
Judging by these sales..... I expect 3DS to shoot up and sell slightly less then last year. PS3 to be on par with last year (within 1mill). 360 to sell less then last year. PS vita too shoot up a little during the holidays. Also think Wii + Wii U to be about same as Wii last year. |
That's a silly assumption.
The 3DS, in total, sold 13.25mil last year, the PS3 14.12 and the Wii 11.56.
Currently, the 3DS is at 5mil. Assuming a minimum of 1mil for 4 weeks in December, and 500k each week for November, you've got another 6mil already. So we're at 11mil now.
So we need to find 2.25mil between new and October 31st. That's... 14 weeks (?). That would mean the 3DS would have to average out around 150k each week until October 31st to reach last year's sales. Which it will do easily. And when you include the fact some weeks (MH4 week), the 3DS will be closer to 2mil, I'd say the better question is if it can hit 20mil.
The PS3 is at 4.8mil, but is dropping away YoY significantly. Assuming 750k for December, and 400k for November (PS3 has the weakest holiday), the PS3 would have to sell around 5mil between now and October 31st, or around 320k a week. That's not happening. Even the most positive would put the PS3 at around 10-11mil this year.
The Wii sits at 2.4mil. Assuming it can reach, or be near, 100mil this year, that'd leave the WiiU to sell 5mil this year. Assuming an early November launch, that'd mean the WiiU would have to sell around 6-700k a week, on average, to the end of the year. That should be pretty simple, but the way the Wii is dropping off, this is the most likely of your three scenarios.
The PSVita will, of course, shoot up, but it's sold 2mil this year, and the 3DS is outselling it around 3:1, before any big games/redesigns. I'd imagine the 3DS will have outsold the Vita at the end of the year by around 2:1, at least. So the best case is 3DS at 19mil, PSV at 8mil. Worst case is 3DS at 16mil, PSV at 5mil.
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