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I think all will survive next generation, but, if i had to pick one to exit the market in 5-6 years i would choose MS.
Xbox is irrelevant in Japan and i just don`t see that changing ever.
In Europe, the only real strong market seems to be the UK, if i recall correctly and in remaining countries Wii and PS3 have a good presence.
The States is the real market for Xbox 360.

The reason i pick MS is because the company has become too dependant on those two markets, specially the US.
37 from the more than 67 million Xbox 360`s sold to date are from North America.
My belief is that Nintendo will do a better job with Wii U and Sony won`t make the same mistaked with PS4.
Another problem might be that by the end of Xbox 360`s life, the console will have 3 ways to interact with the console: normal controller, kinect and smart glass. Will MS keep them on Xbox 720? Most likely. But then again what can MS introduce to Xbox 720 that is "fresh" not just for consumers but that really distinguishes it from Xbox 360?