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archbrix on 08 July 2012
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Mnementh said:
archbrix said:

Well, I'm basing my prediction on a couple of assumptions:

Obviously if Microsoft surprises us with a spring/summer launch, WiiU won't have amassed 15m sold by then.  And if Nintendo sells it for $599 US DOLLARZ (lol), it would obviously change the outcome.  So there's not enough confirmed info yet for me to risk, say, having a penis as my avatar.

But assuming that it launches for $299 (or less), I say WiiU will sell at least 15m WW (according to Vgchartz data) in its first full year of availability in all three major regions (NA/Europe/Japan).

Nintendo launches this time often in all three regions at the same time. But as the launch is likely near to the holidays, a slight later release would mean, that it misses one region with christmas-sales. But I on the other hand take the risk, that Sony and MS don't release their next-gen offerings in 2013. That would bring the Wii-U a second holiday of sales, I think that makes reaching the milestone easy. I think the risks are well balanced between us.

So, if you want to stay to your claim, we can bet, if the Wii-U will have reached 15M worldwide sales according to VGChartz, as the next-gen console of Sony or Microsoft is released. If the price is above 350 €/$ or below 250 €/$ in US or Europe, the bet is off. We make a thread about the result, and the loser has to link to this thread with a statement like 'xxx was right' in his sig for say 3 months. That is better than ... a penis-avatar. What do you say?

Alright, here's the deal:  My original claim was based on NeXtBox/PS4 not launching until a full year after WiiU.  So if we just say in a full year of availability after WiiU's release in all three regions, then you're on.  That way, if Microsoft surprise launches in April 2013, I'm not screwed, and if Microsoft/Sony waits until holiday of 2014, you're not screwed.  It's the most fair this way.  However, keep in mind that I'm saying "a full year after it has released in all three regions".  Therefore, if it launches this November in Japan/NA and not until next March in Europe, then it's a full year from March.  It's supposed to launch worldwide this year, however, so this is likely a non-issue.

So I'll reiterate:

"Archbrix predicts that if WiiU launches for $299 (or less), it will sell at least 15m WW (according to Vgchartz data) in its first full year of availability in all three major regions (NA/Europe/Japan).  Mnementh says not."

I accept the stakes you proposed (3 month statement in the losers sig admitting defeat), so if you agree to this criteria we'll post the bet in our sigs ASAP.  Sound good?