Nintendo's screwed.

[archbrix]

Mnementh said:

archbrix said: 

I realize you're just predicting here but I believe that you're being overly presumptuous with this thread.  Personally, I predict that WiiU will have amassed a 15m+ install base before either the NeXtBox or PS4 hit the market.  Considering that the 360 only had around 5m when PS3 arrived, that bodes well for WiiU's future.

15M in a year or less? I take this bet. Or better I say: Challenge accepted! The WiiU will not have sold 15M or more, at the time the Nextbox or PS4 hit the shelves.

Well, I'm basing my prediction on a couple of assumptions:

Obviously if Microsoft surprises us with a spring/summer launch, WiiU won't have amassed 15m sold by then.  And if Nintendo sells it for $599 US DOLLARZ (lol), it would obviously change the outcome.  So there's not enough confirmed info yet for me to risk, say, having a penis as my avatar. 

But assuming that it launches for $299 (or less), I say WiiU will sell at least 15m WW (according to Vgchartz data) in its first full year of availability in all three major regions (NA/Europe/Japan).

Keep in mind that 3DS did 16m in the same time frame with a botched launch, a $250 price for the first five months after its debut in Japan, and, most importantly, zero system selling games until late November.  WiiU is launching with a 2D Mario game, Nintendoland, and a veritable smorgasbord of variety in its first few months (Pikmin 3, Assassin's Creed 3, Aliens, ZombiU, Project P-100, Just Dance 4, Darksiders 2, etc).  So yeah, without shortages I think it'll get there.