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spurgeonryan said:

I was a little off ( by 200 thousand a month) with what I said in my last post about the 3DS, but I will still leave the 25-27 million part by years end.

 

As for the Vita. Around 240 thousand a month should be fair. Maybe too much after this week, but we will leave it. So one million by November about, and another Million in November ( who thinks that things will not turn around by then? No one? Thats what I thought) then at least 2 million in December. Another 4 million by the end of the year. Does anyone think more or less? If I am right then it will be at around 6-7 million by the end of the year. As long as Sony can keep making head way on the handheld then it will continue on. With in two years it should be able to at least cross the Game Gear. If it finally becomes popular then it will be less of course.

Unless Nintendo did not learn their lesson with the Wii and does the same thing at the end of the 3DS lifecycle and stop supporting it ;  the Vita should not be able to catch up. As we have seen with the 360 and the Wii this gen.

Because by the time the 3DS is at its two year mark it should be at or past 30 million. Last year it had the price boost and some good games to help it push to around 15 million I believe. This year it has the XL and some good games to continue that tradition and then some. Probably will even be a price reduction in there at retailers ( retail only).

 

18 Nintendo 3DS (3DS) 18.22 41.04 2.25 341
19 GameGear (GG) 10.62 38.26 3.60 332
20 PlayStation Vita (PSV) 2.30 3.84 1.67 130
21 Sega CD (SCD) 0.00 1.96 0.00 215
22 Neo Geo (NG) 0.00 1.51 0.00 168
23 WonderSwan (WS) 1.12 1.50 1.34 200

Man you post a lot. I think a lot of what will happen with vita is if Sony advertises it well. For example a good commercial with PASBR during the holidays would help it sell tons I think. But if they advertise games that do not sell that well probably will do worse.