| dsage01 said: Many people are doubting my $900 million prediction (domestic) and I did expect that but now I'll clear it all up for people who have a hard time understanding. Domestic: Batman Begins: Weekend Opening: $48,745,440 The Dark Knight: Weekend Opening: $158,411,483 That is an increase of an estimated 3.2 times! When there was no big difference in the the budget between both movies. This was mostly because of the high response the first film got from IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes. The second film only exceeded the first film when it came to early reviews and the IMDB response was overwhelming. Due to that fact that the The Dark Knight had over the top reviews from critics and it is one of the highest rated films on IMDB it will exceed the Dark Knight in opening weekend drastically. And movies such as the Avengers and Amazing Spiderman also increased the female audiences for super hero movies and therefore the same effect will possibly happen. Another important factor is the huge increase of hype in this film which makes it possible to be the biggest film of all time domestically. |
Did you read my previous response to you in my massive book post?
The jump from Batman Begins to The Dark Knight is very understandable. When Batman Begins was released much of the movie going audience was probably in the mindset of where the last Batman movies left off....of which Batman and Robin was dredfully bad. Many movie goers just werent interested until more people saw it when it came out on physical media. Then they realized it was really good.
The Dark Knight had a HUGE draw. previews depicted an intense storyline with the king of villains...the Joker. Trailers looked extremely good and audiences were itching for the next Batman. Throw in Heath Ledger's last full movie and you have a historic blockbuster on your hands.
Audiences loved the Dark Knight so many of them will return for The Dark Knight Rises. My issue however with your prediction is the $300 million domestic opening weekend. This is virtually impossible when you look at the data and all the facts. EVEN IF it breaks the record for Widest opening Theatre release which is currently set by Twilight:Eclipse Which was 4,468 locations there is simply not enough locations available that could generate enough for it to have a $300 million opening weekend. I think the best potential it could possibly have would be in the low $200 million range but I don't see a possibility of it going anywhere north of $220 million opening weekend. While it is true that there are a lot more IMAX locations now when compared to TDK, it is also true that it is not being released in 3D. The added IMAX locations will help its initial opening weekend, but not having 3D will hurt its potential. Avengers shattered the record for average $ per theatre at $47,698 from 4,349 locations. Many theatres were sold out. Even if TDKR matches that $ per theatre (which is extremely unlikely due to no 3D release) and breaks the Widest Release record at lets say 4,500 locations we are still looking at a $214.6 million opening weekend. Not even a prayer of reaching $300 million.
Honestly I hope this movie does very well. I LOVE this series, but I don't see any possibility of it going anything past the $220 million mark. If this movie even hits $215 million mark it would be on the grounds of a miracle.
My prediction was $181 million. At its very absolute best it will be in the $205-$215 million range if it definitely comes close or breaks the widest theatre release record.
