dsage01, those are some very high numbers you are predicting. $300 million domestically in the first weekend seems like a huge stretch to me even though I think it will still be a huge opening....
Lets look at some data from the previous batman movie: The Dark Knight...
Domestic:
Opening Day: $67.1 million
Opening Weekend: $158.4 million
Lifetime: $533.3 million (53.2% of total)
Foreign:
(For this you have to add up the total for each country as it had its opening weekends at various dates in each country. The initial Foreign opening was $41.3 million but that was 19 territories. If you add up opening weekends in each territory combined it comes to around $118.4 million opening weekend. It opened in various territories from Jul 18 through end of August.)
Opening Day: I don't have the data in front of me at this moment
Opening Weekend (all territories): $118.4 million
Lifetime: $468.5 million (46.8% of total)
Rotten Tomatoes: 94%
Total World Wide: $1 Billion
So in light of that it was a huge hit and broke all kinds of records within its box office run. The were Major factors that led to the immense success and this may not be all but I think it sums up the majority of its success:
1. Batman: without a doubt the most popular character in super hero comics. When he is in a movie it will draw a sizeable audience to see it.
2. Story/Production: Extremely well put together storyline and film. Not only a intriguing and smart comic book movie but one of the better crime fighting/serial killer thrillers ever made into a film.
3. the Joker: arguably the most iconic villian of Batman in the history his comics. That put together with Heath Ledgers excellent performance in portraying him.
4. Heath Ledger's untimely death. If you think this didn't have a small part in drawing crowds you are fooling yourself. Heath Ledger was becoming very popular as an actor and was in the mere beginnings of his stellar acting career. his death was a shock to everyone. If anything his death took the Huge level of chatter about the Dark Knight film and raises it up a few notches to the talk of the town on most blogs and forums.
Flash forward to today and we have the next and last installment of the series: the Dark Knight Rises. From the trailers we are teased with the possibility of Batman and/or Bruce Wayne's character dieing. And supposedly a hint that it could be the end of Batman. After all Bane was the character in the comics who literally "broke the Bat". Talk about the movie is at a high fever pitch but in my mind it is still questionable whether it has hit the hype yet that The Dark Knight had. We will know more when we are at the week of its release and can judge better. Still in light of the four main points I mentioned that propelled The Dark Knight to the top...the Dark Knight Rises does not share in all of those. #1 is a given. #2 is a likely but remains to be fully seen yet until we see some professional reviews. It does not however possess #3 or #4. #4 was the extra umph or the icing on the cake that tipped the Dark Knight over the edge into "on fire" status in terms of chatter levels on websites and media.
However even though The Dark Knight Rises does not share #3 and #4 of what Dark Knight had it does however have more of another potential huge factor and that is: The Mystery surrounding the fate of Batman along with the end of the series. The Character Bane provides that mystery Fate of Batman element because he is the villian who was able to "break the Bat" in the comics. So that and the fact that it ends the series will be a huge draw in this film. Therefore I do think it will surpass the Dark Knight's opening weekend totals domestic and foriegn, and has a decent chance of surpassing the Dark Knight's domestic , but I think an even better shot at passing its world wide totals as there are more opportunities for profit and open markets than there were in 2008. Mind you like the Dark Knight this film does not have a 3D option. Therefore I do not see it surpassing the Avengers especially for opening weekend.
@Dsage01:
in order for it to have a $300 million opening weekend it would have to BY FAR have the Widest Theatre opening of all time and be largely sold out in most all locations. Even the Avengers with its $207 million opening in 4,349 theatres (7th Widest opening. Twilight:Eclipse holds the record at 4,468 theatres) sold out in many of its locations in order to earn that staggering amount. The average per theatre it made was $47,698. That broke the previous record. The Dark Knight's average per theatre was $36,283 for its opening weekend. This means if the Dark Knight Rises matches the Avenger's $47,698 average per theatre...then to get to $300 million opening weekend it would need to open in all time record locations of 6,289 theatres! Thats just impossible in all seriousness and would be incredibly amazing. And plus the fact that it isn't releasing in 3D adds more to the insaneness of a $300 million weekend.
Therefore...My prediction for The Dark Knight Rises:
Domestic:
Opening Day: $73 Million
Opening Weekend: $181 Million
Lifetime: $525 Million (I do think it will be close to Dark Knight totals, however I think this movie may have a small touch of the Spider Man 3 effect. I don't mean in the sense that the comic book fans and audience would disproove of its overall story like they did with SM3, but I mean It has so much hype right now that many go see it opening weekend, but Im thinking it will slide down slightly faster than The Dark Knight did due to certain factors.)
Foreign:
Opening Day: ?
Opening Weekend: $172 Million
Lifetime: $645 Million
World Wide Total: $1.17 Billion
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 90%
And yes I know....an Insanely long post. Im a data guy and an analyzer of many things in life.
