$79.99 for MGS4 and FF13?

[Dodece]

When I read a rumor I go through a number of mental steps. The first step is plausibility. How possible is it for something to happen. Second step the veracity of the source. The third step are there logical explanations for why this might come to pass. Finally analyze the relevant facts.

In this case is it plausible yes game prices are not set in stone. Games can be more expensive then the average price, or less expensive then the average price. Do I think Weezy is reliable. Honestly he comes off as hungry for attention. I am not judging his supposed source. Honestly if someone outside of those companies is in a position to know its someone who has a vested interest in the outcome. Microsoft needs to know these things, and they will pay people to find out. Knowing what the other guy is going to do is critical in business. Just as much as hiding what your going to do.

Are there logical reasons for them to do this. Excessive development costs, smaller user base, expensive format, reliable attach rate. There are a lot of stresses that would raise the MSRP. Return on investment and launch date are also not favorable for a lower price.

The relevant facts are simple enough take the projected development costs. Take the probable user base factor in a average attach rate. Factor in the tail. How long it will take them to generate profit off of sales. How many games must be sold, and will many games will be sold in a set amount of time. I won't bother to share my numbers everyone has there own values. Some overly generous, some overly harsh. That said when I do the calculations I see that the situation doesn't look very good. Either these games have to sell exceedingly well in a short timespan, or the companies involved must generate more profit per sale to cover their costs in a reasonable period of time.

I would say its definitely possible, and very plausible. What makes it likely is the consumer they are selling these games to. On another platform they would feel forced to keep the price in line with the competition. However these consumers were often sold on this console explicitly, because of these games. Further more Most of them spent over five hundred dollars for their hardware. Basically I couldn't fault them for pushing the envelope. Hell there probably wouldn't be any blow back at all. So why not avoid the risk of not selling enough, and maximize your earning potential.

You might have noticed that the veracity of Weezy wasn't very prominent in my diatribe, and the reason for that is this. I read this same rumor months ago on a few sites. Further more I have talked to reliable friends who have mentioned the exact same thing. Supposedly Microsoft is supposed to have a couple very expensive games this year as well, and the same also for Nintendo. Though the Nintendo rumor is some sort of WiFi storage for a game that will come out at the end of this year. We were speculating that it had to be some form of MMORPG.