S.Peelman said:
3DS will have a bright future.
The Vita will be unable to make a dent in the 3DS' dominance and will be out far sooner. The 3DS will be replaced with a follow-up in 2016-2017.
By then I think it will have sold between 90 and 110 million. It will beat the GameBoy Advance, but will not beat the GameBoy. From now on, 3DS will sell 20 million a year on average, with 2013-2014 being it's top two years. Like with the Wii U, the 3DS doesn't really have 'the' interesting new feature that Wii and DS had so I predict both will sell less than their predecessors.
New Super Mario Bros 2 will be the 3DS' biggest seller at the end of it's lifetime, with around 20-25 million units sold. Mario Kart 7 will be a close second with around 20 million units sold, it is basically a repeat of the DS generation. The new mainline Pokemon games will of course be big sellers also, topping at slightly above 15 million. With the Pokemon spin-offs ranging between 5-10 million. In Japan, MonsterHunter 4 will kill MonsterHunter 3G's selling power, so that will stop at around 2.5 million there, while MH4 will reach 5 million In Japan.
There will be no other Zelda remake on the 3DS, only an original title. This title will sell better than Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks on DS did, because out of default people will find it a better game. It will end up at over 5 million worldwide, beating out Ocarina of Time 3D's 3.5 million. Other Nintendo IP's will be million sellers also, Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon for example will have a great first few weeks, but will drop off rather fast, just reaching 3 million. It will get no sequel. Like Paper Mario: Sticker Star, a game which will reach a similar sales numbers remains lonely on the 3DS. There will be another entry in the Mario & Luigi series though, selling about 1.5-2.5 million units. Animal Crossing on 3DS will reach not reach the DS' numbers, but will be a solid seller nonetheless. It will do between 4-6 million. There will also be a sequel to the Wii's Donkey Kong Country Returns on 3DS, this game will be quite successful and reach 5-6 million sales.
Other new games like Castlevania: Mirror of Fate, Tales of the Abyss and Epic Mickey: Power of Illusion will hover just under a million, selling 700k-900k. Castlevania will receive a successor, which will do similar numbers. After Dragon Quest X has disappointing sales compared to the DS version, Dragon Quest is brought back to 3DS for the 11th iteration. It will be similar to DQIX, at about 5 million worldwide. Theatrhythm Final Fantasy will be a surprise hit, and with Heroes of Ruin they will end up at a solid 2 million. In the later half of the 3DS' lifetime, Resident Evil: Revelations will get a sequel/prequel, which will do slightly better than the first game with it ending just over a million sales.
Of the games out today, Super Mario 3D Land will be able to get most new sales. It will not reach 10 million, but it almost will when it tops out at over 9.5 million. Sales will decrease because of the existence of NSMB2, but it ends up as the #3 3D Mario game, after Mario Galaxy and Mario 64. Kid Icarus Uprising, RE: Revelations, StarFox 64 3D, Pilotwings Resort, Kingdom Hearts DDD and Street Fighter IV will all reach 1 million, one sooner than the other. Finally, Nintendogs+Cats won't get much higher, but still reaches 3 million.
Mario Tennis Open will not reach a million and thus be a minor failure, like Sonic Generations. They will all reach 600k-800k. Rayman Origins will sell no more than 500k, and it will take a very long time for it to come close to that number. Ubisoft is disappointed and will not release Assassin's Creed on 3DS. It is cancelled for good.
All in all, the 3DS will be successful and have a lot of memorable games. At the end of the day, it's tie-ratio is similar to DS' 5 games per console, but because of the lower user base it will be able to sell about 470-570 million total software units compared to the 780-800 million software units DS will sell before being discontinued. Digital distribution will be successful enough for Nintendo to continue with it on Wii U and on both 3DS and Wii U's successors, but it's total sales will still be negligible compared to retail sales. The DS will end it's life with just over 130 million sellers, and I think 3DS will not be able to come close. It will probably beat GameBoy's 55 million sellers, with 3DS ending at about 60-70 million sellers.
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