Sony has shipped 10.5M consoles to date, according to gametrailers and sony themselves.
On topic: The only way sony can make that number is introduce a new sku and overstock retailers to the point were they cant sell a single ps3. This would make them pass 9.5M. No new sku I doubt they will make it in time anyway.
2008 end of year predictions:
PS3: 22M
360: 25M
wii: 40M