Microsoft - Has the best chance of being the number one console next generation due to their cash reserves. They will be able to spend incredible amounts on advertising and in securing some major third party exclusives early in the generation because of the limited installed bases of the next generation of consoles.
Sony - Will be facing a major crisis with the PS4 which can already be seen with Vita. The 3DS completely routed Vita this generation due to Sony being unable to protect its major third party exclusive and being unable to have a massive advertising campaign in the hundreds or even half billion dollar range. They simply lack the funds needed to counter what the competition can bring to bear. If Sony as a whole continues losing billions of dollars we might just witness the complete annihilation of the Playstation brand next generation.
Nintendo - They talk about wanting to get major third party support and to gain some of the COD/Skyrim/etc crowd but everything we've seen seems to pull the legs out from that effort. For example while the competition have built up massive online communities Nintendo talks about having a system in which it could take up 30 minutes for your comments to go live. In addition they have also stated that they will not pay for exclusives which could give the competition a major advantage. And finally if they're unwilling to sell hardware at a loss they run the risk of alienating the casuals that made up a large amount of the Wii audience.
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