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Mazty on 16 June 2012
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Conegamer said:
Mazty said:
Conegamer said:
Mazty said:
Khuutra said:
Mazty said:

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.

Using one year as 12 months, and assuming 2 scenarios:

1. £220/$269 launch, bundled with NintendoLand, NSMBU out before Christmas

2. £300+ launch, not bundled, NSMBU out after Christmas:

Y1- 11mil/8mil

Y2- 15mil/11mil

Y3- 20mil/17mil

Y4- 18mil/14mil

Y5- 16mil/10mil

Y6- 13mil/8mil

After- 22mil/ 15mil

Total- 115mil/83mil

 

The first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario (IMO, though the first year or two may have a mil or less, made up for in later years). People are underselling it. Even the PS3, which launched 2 years late here and more than the price of the Wii and the 360 put together, has sold 65mil, and with no real competition in its first year, I imagine it'll cement itself in Japan like the 3DS, and have a good foothold in America also. 

No way will it fall below the Dreamcast. A little stock fluctuation means nothing; the same thing happened with the 3DS, but it shot up post-launch.

The thing is you have to consider two major factors:

1) The wii market has dried up. It is selling few units now, and on top of that a lot of wii owners that I know (anecdotal I know but a shared view) are not core gamers and now are on their ipod/phone/pad gaming. These people move to the next big thing and the wii is the past; apple & android are the future. 
2)Core gamers are unimpressed due to the line up consisting of a lot of games that are already out on existing consoles, or will be multiplatform. Why spend £200-£300 + £40 when you can just spend £40 and play it on your console online with your pre-existing friend network?

I can't see the WiiU ever hitting 80 million. 60 million tops and I'm being incredibly optimistic there. 

1. The Wii market has dried up because 100,000,000 Wiis (nearly) have been sold. And the 3DS shows that there's a market for dedicated handhelds, so there's more than a market for a home console.

2. Who are 'Core gamers' anyway? The same people who doubted the success of the Wii? The analysts who said the Wii would sell less than the GC and that the PS3 would sell 200,000,000 units before either were launched? People like to buy the new things, and Nintendo games, obviously. And if it is more powerful, they'll be some great exclusives on the system, and devs will push for a new generation soon. The online market is a very small one, what you want is something that stands out to the average consumer, and the tablet controller does that.

The one thing you should not do is doubt Nintendo.

1. How have you linked there being a handheld market to their being a console market?? Plus I never said there was not a console market, I said casual gamers are not going to give a damn about the WiiU as they are on their Ipad/android phone etc. 

2.People who care about things like graphics, AI, gameplay and so on. Connoisseurs as such. Well where are these great exclusives that appeal to core gamers? All I saw at E3 was a game that was reminisant of L4D whilst had the failed inventory system of Alone in the Dark. As for games like Colonial Marine, why will I spend £350 to buy it when I can spend £40 and get it for the xbox?
Devs are pushing for a new generation of console and the wii will fall horribly behind what devs such as Dice and Epic would like to see. The online market has seen CoD become the best selling multiplatform franchise. How is that small?

Why will people fall for the controller when they have a smart phone or pad which is more powerful and a hell of a lot better looking & handles better (no stylus needed)?
Why should I not doubt Nintendo? The core gamers are doing so, casuals don't care about the WiiU, and investors are. Maybe you should have such blind faith in a company.