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Aielyn on 12 June 2012
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pezus said:
Conegamer said:

That's not the point, though. A cut to $99 does wonders, regardless of where it is in the market. There's still a huge market for the Wii, and people want to have it at Christmas. Not as much nowadays, but for most people, it's the most recognsiable console out there.

Let's look at the PS2:

Cut from $179 to $149- Increase of 57,000 units, sold an additional 600,000 units before returning to pre-cut levels

From $149 to $129 2 years later- Increase of 33,000 units, sold an additional 300,000 units before returning to pre-cut levels.

From $129- $99 3 years later- Increae of 44,000 units, sold an addiional 380,000 units before returning to pre-cut levels.

 

That last price cut was in 2009, nearly 4 years after the 'next-gen' started. Who can't say the Wii can't do the same? You'd be surprised. At $149, it's not worth it for just a game or two, but at $99, suddenly it becomes feasible.

I can. Wii is nowhere near PS2 levels at comparable time frames.

Right, and the Wii is still more expensive than the PS2 was at the comparable point in time. Let's do a slightly more rigorous comparison.

For this comparison, we'll use the price in existence at the release of the PS3, because that's the key focus of the argument.

In the US, the PS2 was down to $129. In Japan, it was down to 16,000 yen. In the UK, it was £105.

In the US, the Wii is currently $149. In Japan, it is 20,000 yen. In the UK, it is £120.

As an aside, the Wii and PS2 cost roughly the same amount ($199) in Australia at equivalent points... which is indicative, because the exchange rate between US and Australian dollars at the time was AU$1 equal to about US$0.75... whereas now, it's pretty much at parity (AU$1 = US$1, or thereabouts).

In all three territories that it is easy to find numbers for and for which comparisons make sense, the Wii is still significantly more expensive than the PS2 was at the same or similar point in its life, having sold roughly as many units. While it is certainly unreasonable to expect the PS2's level of longevity with regards to the Wii, this is primarily because Nintendo is unlikely to price the Wii U much higher than $300, whereas the PS3 was priced at $500 for its cheaper configuration. As such, Nintendo would have to sell the Wii at somewhere around $60-80 to have any chance of a comparable longevity, and they're unlikely to do that.

But what the analysis does indicate is that the Wii has a strong chance of breaking the 100 million mark, and even a reasonable chance of breaking the 110 million mark, before it completely dies. To think otherwise is to believe that there is nobody out there that would want to buy a Wii, but would have held off because it is too expensive. Keep in mind that price cuts down at this end of the process tend to produce a net boost in sales in an ongoing fashion, by preventing declines in sales - that is, if Nintendo cuts the Wii price to $99 in the next couple of months, it is likely that the Wii will end up maintaining 60,000 a week (or possibly a little more) well into 2013. If they cut to, say, $129, it'll probably continue to decline somewhat, and sustain 40-50,000 a week. Even at 40,000 a week, though, you're still looking at over 2 million sold in 2013, before factoring in holiday 2013 sales.