Entroper on 30 January 2008
| Sullla said: This is actually a clever thread, bigjon. Kudos on a good idea. I have two quick comments: - Your numbers for 360 and PS3 should hold relatively true to form for the next few months, with occasional spikes for major new titles. One thing that you didn't factor in, however, is the seasonal increase that both consoles start seeing at the end of the summer, leading up to the Fall slate of releases. Starting around August with the release of all the yearly sports games, the 360 and PS3 will see about a 15-20% sustained rise in sales, slowing picking up towards the holiday rush. The Wii should probably see a slight boost as well, just not to the same extent. Of course, this can all be thrown off if Microsoft and Sony decide to break out the red ink and start slashing prices again. - You're definitely being a little optimistic with Wii numbers. Even if Nintendo is making ~450k per week, it's unlikely they'll see more than about 350k in the slow periods of the year. I expect that they'll hold back some of that supply for major releases and holiday periods. And whether or not Nintendo will continue to increase production is a wildcard. While I do believe that the Wii will have over 50% marketshare by the end of this generation, I'm not sure if it will happen in 2008. I still think it's something like a 50/50 chance. If it does happen though, it likely won't be until December. |
I agree that 360 and PS3 sales will go back up thanks to a price war between the systems. However, I think we'll see very strong Wii sales even during slow periods. Honestly, when you're still selling out to Sunday morning crowds, you don't really have a "slow period." I wouldn't be surprised by steady Wii sales of 200k+ per week in America, depending on allocations to Japan and Europe.
