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Sony has also said they want to launch their next gen console before Microsoft do, or at least that was rumoured. And I think that's more plausible. Q4 2013 latest. I'm expecting a Q3 release. The Last of Us and God of War will come out early next year, so the PS4 could be announced months after they release. Let's say we get The Last of Us in Feb and GOW in March and PS4 is announced at E3, this leaves a pretty big gap.

Let's also not forget that games have been proven to sell well for at least a year or 2 on last gen systems even when the next gen is out, let alone announced.

GT6 should be a PS4 launch title. It would be one of the biggest launch titles ever and sell millions of PS4s, a possible instant victory in Europe over Microsoft as well.