| auroragb said: I think that the avg consumers should not be lumped into a particular game category. I think that the avg consumer only looks at this: "I want this game, how much do I put down before I can play it?" The avg consumer doesn't start with 5-10 games, they start with one. They evaluate the total cost before playing vs the desire for the game. So, effectively the games don't cost $50-$60. For this gen, they cost from $250 for the Wii w/ Wiisports to $460 for the 360 to $660 for the PS3. I just don't think that there is any single game that justifies the cost of $660. Especially $250 gets you the "cool" game that everyone is raving about. For sony to compete for 2nd place in this gen, they'll have to drop at least $150 by October. $200 to put xbox in 3rd place. $300 for a chance against the Wii. Any less than $130 drop by end of this year guarantees a 3rd place finish for this gen. If they drop < $130 by end of this year, PS3 will be at 360's mercy of how far they want to be ahead of the PS3 in this gen. Of course, this doesn't take into account whether or not share holders will allow them to drop the prices at a further loss. Like the OP said, rock and hard place |
I do believe that the above poster hit pretty much on the head. Call them what you will, but $500 is a lot of money to most people in the world (including the US and Japan). Add to that fact, games in general are not a high priority and you understand this generations numbers. I dont think there is anyone out there who wouldnt like to have a higher end console (360 or PS3), but is it really worth it to pay >$500 for something so optional when there are alternatives that are arguably just as much fun for less than half that cost (Wii & PS2)? I will get worse graphics, but that doesnt mean I, my children, my girlfriend/wife, friends, and plain people from Kentucky wont enjoy them just the same. Enjoyment is enjoyment and it isnt always based on how much money you spend and I think most people understand this.
I think what will probably happen in the next few years is this. Sony will decide to either give up on this gen and just tread water until the next or they will bite the bullet and try to make a move to regain the lead which is only possible with a $200 or so price cut (or match the 360 price whichever is lower). Doing so will put them in strong competition with the 360 and improve sales dramatically in Japan. I don thing there is anything they can do now to catch up to anyone but they still have a chance to be profitable or at least break even if they can sell more consoles and regain 3rd party confidence. Sony will not go out of business or stop making consoles regardless of the choice they make since they have very deep pockets.
If the 360 hits $250-$300 (possible with drop in production costs) the Wii will be in trouble if they dont do something drastic. If the other consoles decide to compete at the price level, Nintendo will probably release an upgraded Wii with better capability (upgraded not entirely new). By that time, hardware will have gotten cheap enough for them to make a console powerful enough to compete with the 360 & PS3 at the $250 price point. All games designed on the new system should also play on the old with a simple scaling in graphics. Since they will probably have most developers working with them this would essentially seal the generation in their favor and give them a huge boost next generation.
The 360 will probably remain in 2nd and compete well against the Wii especially with a few price cuts and improvements to their failure rates. If they want to compete in japan they will probably need to drop the price to Wii levels. They will not win japan by any means but if they can at least sell a few million they can plant the seeds for the next generation however I dont think the japanese are going to tollerate short term hardware failures from a relative new comers so they need to iron those issues out completely.
