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Nintendo's "baseline" goal should be to beat Sony for the no.2 spot worldwide by a comfortable margin.

They have stronger internal franchises than Sony does, they now can actually outspend Sony (hello there Monster Hunter 3DS) because of Sony's eroded financial standing, and the Wii brand is just as well known as the Playstation brand now, and they have a full year headstart.

They may have to "settle" for a smaller sized userbase than the first Wii, but can make up for it by attracting more core users that spend more on games.