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The Wii U might sell much less than the Wii and DS, but this doesn't automatically mean they will be last place. However, depending on how much less it sells compared to the Wii and DS, there is a greater chance they will be in third place.

You're right though, the Wii U is not anything new to the average consumer. Nintendo will have to rely on new and unique games tailored for the Wii U instead in order to draw in customers. This will help distract them from the fact that all they are playing is an iPad with buttons and a TV.