Soundwave on 30 May 2012
Nintendo would never go third party. This is like thinking a Victoria Secret model is going to date an average bum off the street because she just broke up with her rich boyfriend.
Worst case scenario for Nintendo is they'd start a monstrous bidding war between Sony and MS (and possibly Google and Apple getting in on it too) and could play "king maker" in the console sector by going exclusive in exchange for a big amount of cash per year, full studio independence, hardware design input, etc.
Microsoft would cave the moment Nintendo threatened to go meet with Apple and that would be that.
Sony will leave the game industry first IMO, though I think in this scenario Sony and Nintendo would bury the hatchet and agree to team up.
