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Well i think it should do 2.5-3 million very easy. And 4 million is the absolute max for this game since its at the end of this gen and its a mature game.

I expectet Sony to advertise this game like hell and give it some bundling for the PS3 last 3-5 years. So i think when its all sayed and done it will be around 4 Million.
Good reviews and word out of mouth will bring The Last of Us to this level 3-4 Millions.