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Nintendo has a lot to do in order to ramp up anticipation in Japan for Wii U. Right now that region is their biggest obstacle. Their console sales will be fine in the US and EU, but take a look at Wii sales in Japan right now, their right next to Vita level sales of around 5k/week the last I checked. Their consoles traditionally do better in the states, and their portables better in Japan.

But to address the title of this thread, if Nintendo does not impress at E3, then the Wii U could look like a failure (comparatively to the original Wii). The Wii U, though, may just start off slower and have the same market impact. I think that it would be very hard for Nintendo to screw this up, but anything's possible.