Concern about new Pred. League games: quick Q. for everyone

[Just_Ben]

ioi said:
I quite like Mnementh's idea - I am going to look into it and see. This way the average prediction becomes what you are compared to so if you are spot on and everyone else is miles away you get the best payout, if everyone is close then not so.

I like it.

Nice :o)

On the other hand, it could be more fair, I think the idea was also his :) :

The total ammount off cash bettet on one item (lets say Wii) goes in a pot, and payed out by accuracy:

Lets take a game called X:

Guy 1 betted 50$ on 100k

Guy 2 betted 100$ on 50k

Guy 3 betted 75$ on 75k.

The pot size is 225$. Lets also say you give a 5% on top "bonus", the pot size is  236.25$

The game turned out to be 70k.

We know calc. The accuracy and pay out by put in potsize:

Guy 1 has a acc off: 1-30/70= 57%*50$ = 28.5 points

Guy 2 has a acc off: 1-20/70= 71%*100$= 71 points

Guy 3 has a acc of 1-5/70 =  93%*75$ = 69.64 points

Thats a total of  169.14 Points or 236.25/169.14 =1.40$/point.

Ergo :

Guy 1 gets  39.9$ (lost 10.6$)

Guy 2 gets 99.4$ (lost 0.6$)

Guy 3 gets  97.50$ (won 22.5$)

So you win more if you bet on something others are inaccurate, but the system itself doesn't generate money in that high way the current system can do. (5%/week of bets).