Balance and Mario Kart do not go together. It is specifically designed so that bad players can still win. I've led an entire race before being displaced at the last minute by a blue shell on the last lap. I've done absolutely horrible and gone from eighth to first on the last lap with some lucky item pickups. Get rid of most of the items (and most importantly that damn blue shell!) and you can have a balanced game. I'm very surprised they still haven't implemented a system like in SSB where you can choose which items are included in a match.
I will say, though, that I have dodged a blue shell once. I had mushroom in first place and I wanted to use it before the blue shell hit me and I guess I used it at just the right moment that I got out of the blast zone when it went off. It was glorious!
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