It depends what the situation is when the supply catches up to demand and a price drop actually makes sense. If the bubble somehow bursts and Wii sales go into free-fall (in other words, the Wii really is a fad), then a price drop will give it a slight boost, but won't save it. This is pretty much what happened to the Gamecube. However, I strongly believe that the Wii is not a fad. The GC was not a very attractive system and suffered horribly from a lack of games (regardless of quality). The Wii however is hugely popular and is getting a lot more software that the cube did in the same time frames. I can't imagine that kind of rapid drop in sales at this point.
I think rather than looking to the Gamecube to see how a price drop will affect the Wii, the PS2 would be a better predictor. Basically a price drop should cause a spike for a short while then level off at the same or slightly higher level of sales as few months prior to the drop. Mostly it will keep sales from trending downward.
It is a bit of a question mark though since we don't really have any indicator of how high Wii sales can go. A lot of people claim the Wii is being bought in huge amounts by non-gamers. If non-gamers are buying it in large numbers at $250, how many would buy it at $100? And if the hardcore aren't buying the system, how many more gamers will give it a shot if it gets really cheap and isn't hard to find? I personally don't buy into the 'selling mostly to non-gamers' theory (everyone I know with a Wii owned at least one previous gen system), but if there's any truth to it, a price drop could potentially create a bigger boost than we normally expect from price drops.
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