Well odds are NSMB2 will reach 20mil LT.
That'd mean that the Vita games will have to sell, on average, 2 mil each to reach it. That won't happen.
Also, odds are on at least one of them will be cancelled...
You need to be bolder! Say something like MH4's FW will outsell the top 10 Vita games in Japan LT or something :P