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richardhutnik on 05 May 2012
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Slimebeast said:
richardhutnik said:

Let me say this: It is presumptive, highly presumptive, to assume that if X is gone, that the people into X will migrate elsewhere.  It is very possible they wouldn't do any console stuff at all, or their interest is just into FPS stuff.  It doesn't translate that people into FPS titles will suddenly play sandbox games or any sorts, or even the infernal Dante's Inferno, or even God of War.  You can't presume that.  A form of this presumption is also done with the software industry presuming every piece of pirated software will translate into a sale if people couldn't access it for free, and then reports it the pirated versions as lost revenue.

You can't flat out presume that the people migrate over, or won't migrate over now.  If you can't get them now, what makes you think it would be easier to get them, when they aren't playing a console at all?

The market consisted of Halo, before Call of Duty came out.  Without Call of Duty, it is likely Halo in a larger degree.  Also, you have to realize that the success of Call of Duty has driven other FPS titles to be produced, because investors see a market.  Without Call of Duty being a big success, you are less likely to see others come over, particularly on consoles.  You wouldn't likely see Crysis ported over, or others.  It would of been mainly PC fare for FPS titles.

Of course I can assume, just like you did but in the other direction.

There's two forces at play, one driving casuals and new people into hardcore gaming thanks to the phenomenon of Call of Duty (the one you describe above), the other force being all these existing hardcore gamers being hooked to Call of Duty and simply not having time or urge to discover other games.
(Dante's Inferno is not one of those games, I just mentioned it because it's a personal favorite. I love Dante's Inferno and got the Platinum trophy for it, which I am very proud of. But there is no one to play it with online, the servers to Dante's Inferno on PSN are always empty Anyway, I am happy a sequel to Dante's Inferno is in the making).

Anything you can say I presume here, is that there is no guarantee of a market materializing elsewhere, if it currently exists somewhere.  I can't presume that players will end up doing something, just because something else is gone.  People are drawn to something, because it has certain attributes.  Other things may not have those.  And to end up going towards another category that is missing some of the attributes of the likes of Call of Duty (since Modern Warfare), it is hard to project that the audience would show up for it.

The thing I will differ with you on about hardcore gamers who play Call of Duty, suddenly getting exposure is that I believe hardcore gamers don't only play one game.  They play a range of games and own a number of them.  The thing you have with Call of Duty, since Modern Warfare is an RPG leveling up framework, that drives people to play online, but also has them play without needing to worry about others.

What I said, for a franchise as large as Call of Duty is now, is the base tends to just play that.  It is like core players into Madden.  Make NFL football disappear and you have no guarantee they go on to other games.  It is folly to presume taking something away means a market moves elsewhere.  It could just end up disappearing.  For all you know, players might find other things better than videogames to do.  You know, there are enemies of the videogame industry that would love nothing more for it just go away, so people would be forced to do other things with their lives.

By the way, kudos to you for enjoying Dante's Inferno.  As much as I wanted to try to like it, I found it an abysmal knockoff of God of War, that so infuriated me, I am very happy it went away.  This from someone who so much wanted to end up liking it, because I would be a fan of the game world, and the base story.