I would expect Brawl to do at least a 1:3.3 attach rate based on the 1:3.3 attach rate of GC to SSBM. That would be about 6.6m give or take, depending upon total Wii sales for the March release date. That's over a period of 12 weeks, possibly longer, allowing for additional sales in keeping with rate of sales for Wii consoles (which in an additional 12 weeks would be closer to 7.6m if the attach rate stays consistent).
That doesn't account for the inevitable spike in console sales in late Feb/early Mar. Those numbers for Brawl should be higher if rate of console sales picks up earlier in February.
I don't see the attach rate being higher than GC to SSBM (if anything, it should be slightly lower due to the casual gamers who are only buying Wii Play/Sports and the occasional casual game) since SSBM was one of the most popular games available on the GC. How many people bought a GC was irrelevant.
I would expect to see sales around 1.2m in the first week or better due to the wider appeal of Brawl. Not everybody who has a Wii buys every Mario game released, even SMG, which currently has a lower attach rate than GC to SMS.
Brawl should do better than SMG upon release and overall.
Anyone have any data on pre-orders? I'm not even taking those into account so first week sales could be even higher.
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