Prediction 1: Sega re-enters the market in June and sells 400 million consoles by August only to lose the next generation to Atari in early October. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Now for the real predictions: Nintendo announces that they beat their projection of having 6 million Wii's sold by the end of March. In actuality, they have around 7-7.5 million sold to customers as of March 31. Sony announces that they missed their projection of 6 million PS3's sold by the end of March. They end up selling between 3-5 million to customers as of March 31. Microsoft does ship approximately 11-13 million 360's worldwide by June 30. Between 10.5 and 11.5 are in the hands of customers. The Nintendo DS passes the PS2 in Japan between October 15 and December 15, 2007, with hardware sales in the 23-26 million range when it does so. Wii-mania slows a bit in the summer, but demand stays strong. Wii gets to 10 million sold to customers between late June and mid August. 360 hits 14.5 million in late October. Wii hits 13 million in late October. PS3 hits 8 million in late October In the all important holiday season, 360 and Wii are neck and neck in North America. PS3 loses an important killer app last minute to the 360, and sells significantly less. Europe balks at the expensive price of PS3, and at what Wii and 360 offer. The consoles nearly split the Euro pie in three. In Japan, Dragon Quest, DDR, a big Nintendo non-game, and a big Nintendo tradtional game carry Wii into DS levels of popularity. Sony manages one killer app in Japan, that sells to 40% or more of the PS3 userbase, but does little to increase hardware sales. November looks like this: Americas: 360 - 800,000 Wii - 750,000 PS3 - 500,000 Europe: 360 - 450,000 Wii - 500,000 PS3 - 400,000 Japan: Wii - 1,000,000 PS3 - 200,000 360 - 25,000 December looks like this: Americas 360 - 1,000,000 Wii - 850,000 PS3 - 500,000 Europe 360 - 500,000 Wii - 600,000 PS3 - 400,000 Japan Wii - 1,000,000 PS3 - 300,000 360 - 50k December 31, 2007 Userbase (What must be sold considering 'current' userbase) Wii - 17.7 million (12.7 million in 10 months) 360 - 17.325 million (8.1 million in 10 months) PS3 - 10.1 million (8.2 million in 10 months)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
