Tablets, smart phones, social gaming, etc are not going to take out console gaming in their current state. However, the cheap games offered on these services is clearly eroding much of the potential audience for $40-60 games on handhelds and consoles. The only games that compete with $3 smart phone games are bid-budget AAA games. The financial risk on these AAA games means that game developers are always at risk of going bust if they don't get enough sales on 1 particular game. If consoles only get AAA titles, that means there will be much less variety in game selection. Innovation will likely be stifled by the huge development costs of the next gen.
Apple still has not made its grand appearance on to home television sets. It will. I have no doubt that once Apple gets it revamped Apple TV running (probably this year) that it will eventually have a game controller option to go with it. Touchscreen gaming is still a major limitation of Apple's current game platforms.
Other players such as Google may also try to add a game controller to their Google TV. Cloud based systems such as Onlive may also increase in popularity.
All in all, there will be far more competition for the living room space that Xbox/PS3/Wii once filled. I think Microsoft is the only current games company that is in position to maintain a similar market share in the next generation. Sony is in too much financial trouble and Nintendo will likely have an underpowered system with a huge loss of casual players.
The console world is changing quickly and with the emergence of cloud technology I think the landscape is going to look drastically different in the next 3-5 years.
Most anticipated games of 2011:
Uncharted 3,Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Rocksmith
Modern Warfare 3, Super Mario 3D
