You can exclude Wii Sports for being a console pack-in, but you can't exclude Wii Play simply for being inexpensive, and you certainly can't exclude Wii Fit for being MORE expensive than a normal game due to the "pack-in" balance board.
Wii Music we don't know enough about yet. We can't say yet if it will be another Wii Sports, Play or Fit. If could be a 20M seller, or a 3M seller.
Don't forget Animal Crossing Wii. AC for DS is going to reach 10M. I think a lot of that will carry over to Wii. The Wii edition may sell worse in Japan, but it may also sell better in America.
I'll say...
Wii Play- 30M +
Wii Fit- 20M
Mario Galaxy- 14M
Mario Kart- 11M
Animal Crossing- 10M
Smash Brawl- 9M
I won't speculate about unannounced games.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
