Predict the 360 Q1 shipment numbers

[Hyruken]

cookingyourmama said:

Hyruken said:
I'm going to go for about 1.2m as that is pretty much how it has been each q1 in the past. Which would in my opinion be conclusive proof that it did indeed win 2011. Because the sony fans were saying it was major overshipped for the holidays so by that logic they would not need to ship much at all. So if they ship roughly the same they have for previous years would indicate that either they are continuing to overstuff the channels (unlikely) or that demand in holidays was higher then some people on here thought. Anything around 500k would indicate vgc was right and that they did overship last quarter.

*facepalm* Right to begin with, what's 'normal' for microsoft to ship this quarter is 1.3m-1.7m not 1.2m & more importantly beyond that it's not just a question of did microsoft overship in 0ct-Dec 2011, it's a question of did they overship in Jan-Mar 2011 as well. In Jan-Mar last year they shipped 2.7m, that's 1.2m more then they did the previous year, they were overshipping in that quarter as well to make up for undershipping in the Oct-Dec 2010 holiday.

The facts are:

For every 0.1m less than 2.7m they ship this quarter, that's how many they overshipped in Jan-Mar 2011

And for every 0.1m less than 1.5m they ship for this quarter, that's how many they overshipped in Oct-Dec 2011 as well.

Cheers for that, always appreciate opinion. But I suggest you look at my wording. I said "about 1.2m". That means anything around that mark i.e 1m or 1.4m. It is not an exact number.....

Secondly the reason they shipped over 2m for the same quarter last year was due to some addon that was the fastest selling media device in history. You may have heard of it. it was called Kinect? To expect the same numbers from in this period to kinects release period is as you would say *faceplam* worthy.