This depends if Nintendo still went with the Wiimote or focused on HD like MS and Sony. Nintendo was bleeding market share each generation they lost most third party support with the GameCube. Prior to the release of Wii I was on NSider and discussed this with Nintendo Of America employees and the Sages. The Nintendo employee stated Nintendo had come to the conclusion that Nintendo had roughly 16-million die hard fans. Nintendo had nearly lost half its market share each generation. I'd suspect Nintendo would lose more market share again likely down to 16-million to 24-million. Nintendo sold as the second choice to many gamers this generation. Most likely Nintendo would have split market share with Sony. Nintendo would have likely turned a slight profit but nothing like they did with Wii. If Nintendo had used the Wiimote with HD it most likely would have sold 40-mill or so stealing market share from Sony. Nintendo would have finished second or third with the Wiimote.
Nintendo needed the cheap price of a non-HD system to sell the Wii to casuals. Nintendo would have likely needed to take a loss on hardware at some point to get the 40-million+ in sales if Nintendo beat Sony they would need an improved online network as well.
Nintendo needed a cheap innovative platform to stop the steady decline in Nintendo's market share.
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
