March NPD - X360 #1 371k, PS3 337k, Wii 175k

[Seece]

Conegamer said:

Seece said:

Conegamer said:

Zlejedi said:

Conegamer said:

Seece said:
Sorry I had to go out last night!

Smallest PS3 - 360 gap since Slim debuted, PS3 price cut has had a sustained effect afterall. Star Wars should widen it next month, not sure about May, June they have to cut!

Wii is falling behind rapiidly, down 115k YOY despite price cut, going to $99 will do little to nothing. 360 - Wii gap is 5.57m, closed the gap 196k this month.

Reckon the 360 will overtake the Wii in the US then? If it keeps it up like this each week on average, it'll take 28 months. I know it'll likely grow in the holidays and perhaps more this month with Star Wars, and of course when there's a price cut, so 18-20 months is more likely. The question is, will the 360 continue selling for that long after the WiiU is released? 

However, I still reckon both will end up very close. Could go either way, depending on how quickly Wii drops further.

Even assuming Wii U will cause X360 sales to drop (I got no idea why it would happen unless Wii U is like 200$) it will also cause Wii sales drop.

There's no ifs here just a matter of when in USA.

Why would it happen? Because people want the next BIG thing. It may not cause sales to drop dramatically, but -10% YoY + whatever else due to age and fatigue for the PS360, and -20% YoY+ Whatever else for Wii seems likely. 

The 360 can't sell forever. It'll start to drop dramatically, and it'll probably either happen later this year or early next. It's whether or not it can continue to outsell the Wii at this rate for long enough to get close enough to the Wii's sales. Because when the 360 starts to drop in sales, the difference between sales of the two each month will be much less than 200k per month, or 50k per week...

I expect we'll see something along the lines of (LT):

47mil Wii

47.5mil 360

32mil PS3

 

This seems possible, so the 360 just edging the Wii

Sorry bud, your scenario aint happening. The gap will be under 2m end of the year, 360 price cut will catapult sales much further than a Wii price cut would. People have been coming up with excuses for years as to why it won't happen but it's becoming more and more inevitable ever since the slim released. Wii won't reach 47m or anywhere near. It's just passed 39m and it's slowing down dramatically, 2.5m it'll get this year. Doesn't have another 8m in it lifetime in the US.

Just an FYI, Wii has dropped 2.5M year over year for over 3 years now, 360 has never dropped YOY since its release.

People argued with me about the UK, now look, it's gonna happen this year/early netx year

Hmm...I suppose so. But it depends on how well the Wii sells after the WiiU launches, but I expect to see 45-50% drops YoY for the Wii from here on out until the sales become irrelevant. It happened for the DS, and that was in a MUCH stronger position (heck, Pokemon came out for it and there's still games on the horizon. The only thing left for the Wii is DQX really, and it's doubtful that will come over here.), so the Wii can only do worse. 

BUT, I do expect the 360 to be down YoY this year, even with a price cut (if only 5-10%), and if a new console is announced, the year after will be down 20% or so, in a similar trend to the Wii, just a couple years later. Same for the PS3. 

Perhaps Wii won't reach 47mil. If it achieves 3mil this year, and then 2mil the next, then 1mil...hmm...that brings it to 43. 47 does seem like a push...maybe 43-44mil is more likely...

 

And for the record, I never disputed your prediction in the UK

Wel, Nov + Dec last year was actually up for the 360, it had bundles but no actual price cut. Wii had a price cut earlier on and was down mahooosively Nov + Dec. This holday with a 360 cut and WiiU, Wii is gonna be left in the dust, we're talking sub 600k Nov and Dec each. WiiU won't immediatly effect 360, it's a console in demand (like PS2 but more so alligned).

I agree it will likely be down, but providing they give it a meaty price cut, not by too much. Wii is trending terribly already though, it doesn't matter what price it is now, it has no SW selling it, and it doesn't exactly have a library that screams out legacy, especially when the target audience has Kinect now. (Although I think casual home console gaming is generally fading on all fronts)

This is wii's lowest ever month (5 weeks to boot) in comparison whilst down yoy, this march is still up over 06,07,08,09 and 10.

Also, PS3 and 360 have never been as low as 175k in any March since they released ...

2.5m this year, 1.3m year after, then more or less dead in the US. 42/43 lifetime and won't overtake PS2 is my current betting.