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Nintendo franchises I personally care about: Zelda, F-Zero, Mario Kart, Endless Ocean, Wave Race, 3D Mario, Pilotwings and Wii Sports.

There is bound to be at least 1 Zelda, Mario Kart and 3D Mario game on every Nintendo console.
There may be additional Zelda/MK/3DMario games.
Wii Sports, or a similar premise is also highly likely on Wii U.
F-Zero and Pilotwings are hazy, though I don't have a problem with Pilotwings being incorporated into Wii Sports as it is on 3DS... F-Zero's general premise doesn't need changing.
Wave Race I think may be a comatose franchise (ie for now I don't think Nintendo plans anything with it, but it may be revived in a generation or two on a random whim a-la Kid Icarus)
Endless Ocean 3 would be a great reason for me to start gaming (or anything) in higher definition.

The sensible choices for Nintendo for launch of those franchises would be to pick two of the top tier sellers (Mario Kart, Wii Sports or 3D Mario) as well as a lower tier like Pilotwings.

Strictly speaking MK and WS are in a whole other league from 3D Mario, but as a launch title 3D Mario would still be a big deal.