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crissindahouse on 10 April 2012
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Kasz216 said:
crissindahouse said:
Rath said:

 

His approval spiked hugely as soon as he went to war, didn't last as long as he would have hoped though.

 

this is a nice graph. even few years after the start of iraq war bushs approval wasn't less than before the war. it just dropped to the % he had before but not less. ok a liitle bit less but if there wouldn't have been the war it would have dropped to a weaker approval as well. it dropped very fast before the war.

crazy how many people liked him.

Thats not what that graph shows... the graph shows his popularity dropping below pre iraq levels pretty quickly. (Then rising again, then dropping)

Outside which, it is oddly confusing considering that most people were still against the war without UN approval when he launched it.

So why people suddenly started backing him.... i'm not sure.

Something about that seems geniunely off and makes me wish I had the source data to look at rather then a VERY cluttered poll.


To me it always seemed more like the Wallstreet journal poll.

 

Showing his approval rating generally lower on everything,  and the WSJ not being known to be a liberal source.

Something feels confounding there... perhaps that the "14-day average" mark seems to suggest that it's treating every poll as the same source of data.  Rather then treating each poll as it's own source of data.


Problem being, your expected to be biased polls like Fox News will create a bit of an exagerration as they will poll more often, when the president does something popular, and less often when they do something less popular. (Well the opposite now.)

hmm i thought that i said exactly that. the graph was at~55%, then huge increase because of 9/11. then it was dropping very fast pre iraq (between 9/11 and iraq war ~30% drop) so if there wouldn't be the iraq war the graph would have dropped more as well, i don't believe that the drop would have stopped exactly there. before iraq it fell from 87% or so to ~55% (which was the same number pre 9/11) and falling very fast, then iraq war with a huge increase and then dropping very fast to ~53%, then they got saddam wich gave a small boost and then next drop to ~48% at election.

but the drop before iraq was constant so i think, iraq or not, he would have dropped below 50% if you watch the line between 9/11 and iraq in the first graph. he was at 50% two year after iraq war start and at 55% short before iraq war with a fast falling popularity maybe even below 50%.