Metallicube, if its inferior powered to the 360 I will probably still purchase it but I will not be happy. The only reason I would buy it is for Nintendo's software. The hardware would absolutely have to retail at 199$ or cheaper 250$ would be a rip off. Nintendo would likely see some success the first winter but will have peaked by winter 2013 by winter 2014 by 2015 it will be off shelves or in bargain bins.
I cannot think of any innovation Nintendo could make so revolutionary that they could successfully maintain a console weaker then 360 for five years. Three year life cycle is being optimistic I'd project 20-30 million units life time sales within those three years. Nintendo wouldn't make enough money to maintain profits and their market share would have flat lined.
Even at the 2.5x power I suspect WiiU will have trouble in year four and by year five it will be dead. Nintendo is not designing hardware that could potentially go six to seven years if it was necessary. WiiU at current projections is simply a four year healthy life cycle. Nintendo will face all of the same problems that the original Wii did.
Now if Nintendo follows my best case scenerio the WiiU will be half the power or 65-75% the power of NextBox. It needs to be able to receive downgraded ports and a Unreal4 game won't be easily downgraded to play on a WiiU at 2.5x the power. If WiiU is powerful enough to run downgraded ports of any game released on NextBox then it can survive five years strong of course in six years WiiU at 75% the power of NextBox will begin to flat line and not last seven or so years. Of course however Nintendo never goes over 5-6 years life cycles anymore so they don't need 6-7 year hardware. But they do need a console that will still be selling well four years after launch and still on shelves in the fifth year. Three or fewer years would be suicide!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
