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At the current rate GT5 will outsell Reach (without digital sales)... there are more potential buyers for GT5 than Halo: Reach... in fact the XL Edition is not released in Europe yet (the biggest country for GT). In fact reach is more front loaded than GT5.

A little comparison:

GT5 2010: 5,264,164
Reach 2010: 7,100,482

GT5 2011: 1,786,379
Reach 2011: 1,594,218

GT5 2012: 307,832
Reach: 192,329

But if you add digital sales Reach will outsell GT5.