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noname2200 said:

As for your second paragraph, I hadn't heard that only "recognized religions" were exempted. I always thought the test was merely sincerity, weighed against how targeted the law was written. If there is a recognized religion clause, I also have to wonder why it hasn't been brought up yet.

—In the case of an individual who is seeking an exemption certificate under section 1311(d)(4)(H) from any requirement or penalty imposed by section 5000A, the following information:

In the case of an individual seeking exemption based on the individual’s status as a member of an exempt religious sect or division, as a member of a health care sharing ministry, as an Indian, or as an individual eligible for a hardship exemption, such information as the Secretary shall prescribe.”

I suspect it hasn't been brought up because this is typically the ACLU's area of activity, and the ACLU is largely comprised of leftists who are all for this law. To be fair, though, it could also be an issue of prematurity. Lawsuits generally aren't filed over a law until someone is impacted. So, in this case, if someone is denied an exemption, then you'll see the lawsuits start flying.

Anyway, my prediction is 6-3 in favor of the law, with Kennedy and Scalia joining the four lockstep leftards.